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Monday, January 30, 2012

EU Summit gives thumps up to new fiscal pact

The first EU Summit of 2012 ended on Monday with leaders of 27 European nations agreeing to sign a new fiscal treaty, except Czech Republic and Britain. Once effective, the fiscal agreement would legally bind the member nations to implement tougher austerity measures and stricter enforcement rules in their respective country. To ensure its effective functioning, the proposed deal empowers the European Court of Justice with the right to impose fine on nations who fail to follow the new rules.

Also in the recently concluded European Summit, it was decided to bring into effect the European Stability Mechanism in July instead of 2013, which was the original plan. The €500 billion permanent bail-out fund formed on May last year was aimed to insulate the rest of Europe from debt crisis, especially from Greece.

Apart from these two issues, leaders of the European nations also discussed ways to generate employment and encourage small business growth. But, one key issue that has been left largely unanswered in the European Summit is the question of Greece debt crisis. Till Europe finds a comprehensive way to deal with Greece debt crisis, it is very likely that European debt crisis would continue to haunt Europe.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Greece rebuffs Germany’s proposal of external budget monitoring

Germany’s proposal to create a “budget commissioner” to oversee tax and spending decisions evoked a strong reaction from Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos. The minister dismissed the plan saying that it is not only improper but an insult to Greek pride.

The proposal was made in exchange for €130 billion help as second emergency package to Greece. The country is in dire need of this fund to repay its debts due on March 20. But if the proposed agreement is reached that would give direct control to European Institutions (IMF, ECB and EU). They would then have the right to oversee or intervene (through the budget commissioner), on major budgetary policy decisions in Greece for a certain period.

The problem erupted in the wake of fear that the €130-billion proposed package may not be enough to address the debt crisis. A latest analysis also revealed that the second bail-out package would require additional funds to bring down Greece’s debt to a manageable total by the year 2020.

With taxpayers in Europe already reeling under debt crisis, the need for additional funds is seen as the biggest hindrance to broker a deal between Greece and its private creditors. But the immediate biggest concern is if an agreement is not reached before March 20th deadline, Greece could be the first defaulter among developed nations in a very long time.

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Is global recession imminent?

In the midst of market uncertainty coupled with sluggish economic growth, few had expected robust beginning to this New Year. But few had actually anticipated or openly admitted that attempts to bring global economy back on track could be numbered. That Eurozone has approached ‘a perilous new phase,’ acknowledged by none other than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday has certainly given it credibility. But hasn’t the threat of global recession been on the cards for some time now?

The bleak prediction by International Monetary Fund is based on two prevailing situations – high financing cost borne by euro zone nations and European banks facing severe credit crunch. Experts are of the opinion that each of the two conditions could have triggering effect on the other and may lead to further economic contractions.

Factors outside Eurozone could also have a large impact on global economy. Important among them are hike in global oil price due to sanctions on Iran, investor fear in the prevailing market scenario or possibility of spill-over effect of European debt crisis on other big economies like the United States as well as emerging economies like Japan.

On its quarterly updates, IMF has scaled down its previous global growth estimates of the year 2012 from 4 percent to 3.25 percent. In her latest speech, Managing Director of IMF, Christine Lagarde, has called on all the nations of the world to help bolster the bail-out fund and combat the threat of global recession. Currently, the fund is seeking $500 billion in addition to its present reserve.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Egyptian Parliament begins its first session amidst cheer and skepticism

Almost a year has passed post Hosni Mubarak’s ouster, as Egypt’s military government is reported to bequeath its legislative power to the People’s Assembly (lower house of parliament). With this begins the first working session of Egyptian Parliament backed up by people’s mandate. The day is just two days prior to the historic January 25th, when Egypt saw its first uprising against the ruling establishment last year.

It is also a great moment for Muslim Brotherhood. Not only they have gained democratic legitimacy but have also emerged as the largest parliamentary group with 235 seats out of the 498 contested seats in the People’s assembly. There are also 10 more seats that are to be nominated by the Supreme Council of the Armed forces (SCAF).

This is undoubtedly a historic moment for Egypt. Men were seen breaking into impromptu dance and singing patriotic and religious songs and cheering their new leaders. There is also a widespread skepticism about the level of autonomy with which the newly elected people’s representative would govern. Understandably so, as Egypt’s military still have the power to ratify or veto bills. Nevertheless, this is a new beginning for Egypt and Egyptians.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Greece debt talk suffers a fresh setback

The ongoing negotiation between the government of Greece and the IIF (Institute of International Finance that includes representatives of private banks and investors) has come to a standstill over debt talk. The bone of contention is a fresh demand that Germany and the IMF (International Monetary Fund) is trying to clamp on private creditors of Greek government bonds. As both sides are refusing to budge from their positions, the issue of Greece’s outstanding debt remains unanswered.

Under the new demand, private bondholders are expected to accept lower interest rates on their Greek bonds. Plus, they are supposed to swap their existing bonds with new 30-year bonds with below 4 percent interest rate. Experts are of the opinion that for private investors this could amount to 60%-70% loss on Greek bonds.

An agreement on debt talk was expected to be reached by this Monday. The intention was to give lenders to Greece enough time to arrange for second rescue package of €130 billion prior to EU’s next Summit scheduled on January 30. With participation of private creditors mandatory for receiving further financial aid, the latest setback has cast a doubt on how Greece would come up with €14.5 billion debt repayment on 20th March.

Finding a solution to the latest crisis is important for leaders of EU. This would not only bring down Greece debt on a sustainable path, but would also have a positive impact on eurozone nations as a whole.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Tests find radioactive Cesium in rice farms in Japan

Almost a year has passed since a massive earthquake and Tsunami has ripped through Japan, resulting in the Fukusima Daichi nuclear plant’s triple meltdown. Since then it has been an uphill struggle for Japan to make its food supply free of radioactive contamination. It has been reported that more than a dozen rice farmers in Onami, near the infamous nuclear plant, had their crop tested only to find high level of radioactive cesium in their produce. This has created fresh panic as Onami’s rice was earlier declared safe for consumption by inspectors of Japanese government.

The latest findings of radioactive contamination in rice and that of beef, in a similar incident in July, has prompted the Japanese government to act with alacrity. To win back the confidence of its civil society, the Japanese government has assured a fresh inspection of all 25,000 rice farms in the neighboring Fukusima Daichi nuclear plant. Currently, Japan is trying to fill out the gaps in the prevailing food-screening measures and find out a more effective way of checking food contamination through radioactive substances.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Mario Monti presents roadmap to kick start Italian economy

On Friday, Prime Minister Mario Monti proposed a set of plan to infuse oxygen into debt-stricken Italian economy. Among his proposed plan are € 7.1 billion investment in infrastructure, adding 500 new notaries and speeding up country’s legal system, issuing 5000 pharmacy licenses to encourage new business, giving freedom to gas stations to select their providers to encourage competitions, making natural gas prices more competitive and removing bottle neck in public work projects. The Italian Prime Minister earlier had to climb down on his plan to issue new taxi licenses following days of frequent taxi strikes around Rome and other cities.

The set of package proposed by the Mario Monti on Friday was his second attempt as Prime Minister to boost up economy in Italy. His first attempt was on last month when he announced € 30 billion austerity plan. Monti believes that inadequate infrastructure, red tape and too little competition are the main enemies of progress in Italy.

The latest measures that are soon going to come before the parliament is keen to end “protectionist practices” enjoyed by taxi drivers, lawyers, pharmacy owners, among others in Italy. This is believed to jump start the Italian economy on the right path and bring down its €1.9 trillion economic debt.

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Martin Schulz selected as the head of EU Parliament

In a major event on Tuesday, the 56-year-old German sociologist Martin Schulz has been chosen as the next president of EU Parliament. The President elect is going to succeed the existing head of the European Parliament and former Polish Premier Jerzy Buzek. Schulz’s victory is reported to be part of an agreement between two big groups (the Socialists and the Christian Democrats) in the parliament. He has bagged 387 votes out of 670.

Apart from Martin Schulz, two British MEPs (Members of the European parliament), Conservative Nirj Deva and Liberal Democrat and vice president of the European parliament Diana Wallis ran for the presidential post. Both of them secured around 140 votes each.

There has been widespread criticism that the election of Martin Schulz as the EU President has not been fair and democratic. Even the selection of the past presidents is alleged to be stage-managed since the past two decades by two particular opponent groups in the parliament. In fact, both Nirj Deva and Diana Wallis have been raising their voice about this and feel that the time has come when the past mistakes should be corrected.

EFSF rescue fund loses its highest rating

In a major move, global credit rating agency Standard and Poor has stripped the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) bail-out fund off its AAA status to a grade lower to AA+ status. Not that it is surprising considering that last week S&P has already lowered the ratings of nine eurozone nations, including that of France and Austria (two main EFSF’s guarantors). S&P has cited insufficient policy initiatives by European leaders as the cause of ratings downgrade.

The existing lending capacity of European bail-out fund is up to €440 billion, depending on contributions from its guarantor nations which are eurozone countries with triple-A ratings. After ratings downgrade of nine nations, only four nations remain with highest creditworthiness. These are Germany, Finland, Netherlands and Luxembourg.

Klaus Regling, the chief executive of EFSF fund has downplayed S&P’s latest move. Despite this, the reduced rating of EU rescue fund is seen as a big blow to those nations which are already reeling under European debt crisis. With six months still to go for ESM (European Stability Mechanism) fund to be effective, there is tremendous pressure on the existing top credit-worthy eurozone nations to step up cash flow to the EFSF rescue fund and also find a convincing solution to European debt crisis.

Monday, January 16, 2012

EU postpones its decision to save Greek government bonds

Fresh tension brewed in Europe when the three overseas money lenders (termed ‘troika’) deferred their plan to save Greek government bonds by writing off 50% of its debt. The decision was based on the inability of the Lucas Papademos’s interim government in implementing severe austerity measures in Greece, despite reaching an official agreement. The ‘troika’ included European officials representing the EU (European Union), the ECB (European Central Bank) and the IMF (International Monetary fund). They have cast a serious doubt on Greece’s ability and willingness to come out of debt crisis and may withhold the next aid installment due on March.

The situation further aggravated as negotiations between the Greek PM Lucas Papademos’s interim government and the Institute of International Finance (IIF) held on Friday met dead ends. The IIF that constituted members of private sector investors and banks had been engaged on a series of talks with the government on merits of accepting a “voluntarily” default in exchange for additional International aid. The intention was to force private holders of Greek government bonds to accept losses so as to bring down the country’s debt. But with the IIF officials backing out from absorbing losses, the possibility of uncontrolled Greek default is growing larger and so is its impact on Europe and other global economies.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

President of Iran given warm welcome in Venezuela

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian President, has kick started his five days, four-nation Latin American tour on Sunday with Venezuela. The President of Iran and his entourage have reached the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, at around 6:30 pm ET. At the Simon Bolivar International airport, Caracas, Ahmadinejad is said to be given a red-carpet welcome by the Vice President of Venezuela and other officials. This is his fifth state visit.

Iran and Venezuela are counted among the top exporters of crude oil. They also have more than 250 trade agreements between them, apart from the fact that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hugo Chavez (President of Venezuela) are long-time allies.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s current visit to Latin American countries comes as a no surprise to experts. Currently, Iran is under triple threats – growing (economic) unrest at home, increasing isolation from the world and intense international threat to pull out from nuclear program or face more economic sanctions. In such a scenario, it is opined that Iran has little choice but to ramp up economic, military and political support from nations having similar political views as Iran.

But not everybody is happy in Venezuela about Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s state visit. Diego Arria, an upcoming political leader in the opposition, is quite critical and terms the trip as a “provocation” on Iran’s part and embarrassment for Venezuela.

Friday, January 6, 2012

Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to visit Latin America

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the head of the state of Iran, is scheduled for a four-nation tour of Latin America, beginning Sunday. His first stop would be Caracas (Venezuela) where he is set to meet his long-time friend and ally President Hugo Chavez. The rest of his itinerary includes Cuba, Ecuador and Nicaragua. The tour is seen to aim at obtaining outside support and economic ties for Iran which is under intense international pressure to stop its nuclear program.

On his five day tour, the Iranian President may also visit Guatemala looking for new economic partnerships. The President is most likely to be accompanied by his Energy Minister, Majid Namjoo. He has claimed that the tour is for promoting bilateral trade and finding new trading partners in Latin American nations.

Interestingly, Ahmadinejad’s tour does not include Brazil, which is a major economic powerhouse in the region and with whom Iran has strong trading ties. Neither does it include other big Latin American countries like Argentina, Mexico or Columbia where the United States enjoys support.

The United States opines that the upcoming tour is unlikely to generate interest in Latin American countries against the backdrop of sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Has the proposed oil ban by EU unsettled Iran?

In spite of the continuing war of words and defiant stand, has the proposed crude oil boycott by the European Union (EU) succeeded in softening Iran’s stand? Why else would Iran go on record on Thursday saying that the latest economic sanctions by the United States and the threat posed by the EU to stop nuclear program or face ban on oil export are equivalent to “an economic war”? Why would Iran waste time complaining when it could carry out its threat?

Again, “Iran threatening to take action against United States,” if an American aircraft carrier that left for Gulf of Oman via the Strait of Hormuz were to return to Persian Gulf – made news headline on Tuesday. Though there has been no report of United States making any changes to its military deployments at the Strait, no fresh tension has been reported in the Persian Gulf region till Thursday. What does it say?

Iran already has non-existent trade relationship with U.S. Its relationship with Britain is at an all time low. Currently 17 percent of Iran’s crude oil business comes from EU, which contributes a significant amount to Iran’s coffer. Under these circumstances, can Iran really afford fresh economic sanctions from EU? Is its economy in a position to continue with the nuclear program and suffer a new setback? Facts say otherwise, but only time would tell.

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Prospect of oil export ban looms large on Iran

In an attempt to put further pressure on Iran, European Union is mulling over taking the toughest stand so far – impose a ban on Iranian crude oil import. The latest development has taken place on Wednesday when leaders of European nations joined forces to stop Iran from continuing with its nuclear program. A final decision is likely to be reached on January 30.

Till now, Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is purely aimed for civilian purposes. But the United States, now the European Union and most of the world see it otherwise. They want Iran to immediately stop its uranium enrichment. In the meantime, European Union nations who depend on Iran for crude oil would have to find alternative solutions.

It is reported that export of crude oil make up more than 50 percent of Iran’s revenue, out of which Europe alone contributes roughly 17%. If European nations go ahead with their decision to stop oil import from Iran, it would have to hunt for new buyers in Asia to make up for trade in Europe. That too looks like Iran would probably have to settle for a price lower than what it is getting from Europe. Currently, Iran has no trading relation with the United States. Even the United Kingdom and Canada have recently imposed sanctions on Iran. Seeing from here, the future surely looks quite bleak for Iran.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Iran locks horn with US over withdrawing Navy fleets

Only a day after Iran’s successful testing of its nuclear fuel rods, fresh tension brewed in the Gulf as Iran warns United States to pull out its Navy fleet from the Persian Gulf or face consequences. The veiled threat came on Tuesday from Iran’s military commander Major General Ataollah Salehi after the conclusion of Iran's naval parade near the Strait of Hormuz. Salehi was referring to a U.S. Aircraft carrier which had been moved last week from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman on account of its naval drill.

The United States has refused to budge from the Strait of Hormuz citing its commitment towards the safety of international maritime traffic. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the world’s largest and busiest waterway for international oil trade. If this strategic route is closed, this would have severe negative impact on global oil supply and shoot up oil prices throughout the world.

Isolation from the global community and four economic sanctions by the United Nations have already taken a heavy toll on Iran’s economy. Tuesday saw Iran’s currency, rial, hitting a record low as a new round of international sanction became a possibility. At one time, news came in that the government of Iran may stop trading relations with UAE (the United Arab Emirates) for aligning with the United States, which was later denied by the government of Iran. The question is could Iran ever be able to end the deadlock with the world community or is it destined to remain isolated from the rest of the world?

Monday, January 2, 2012

Hosni Mubarak the ousted Egyptian President faces the trial

Hosni Mubarak, the 83-year-old former Egyptian head, appeared before the Cairo court in a gurney on Monday. Besides his two sons, Gamaal and Alaa, ex-security chief as well as six of the top police commanders during Mubarak’s regime also face trial. A verdict is expected to be reached before January 25th, to commemorate the day uprising began last year in Egypt. However, this would largely depend on how long the case proceeds and the time it takes for reviewing the evidences and documents presented.

Hosni Mubarak has been charged with killing over 800 anti-regime protesters. In the same case, he has also been accused of misusing his power by earning profit from selling gas to Israel below the prevailing market rates. Understandably, he has denied such charges. It is reported that prosecutors would have three days to present their case before the court, beginning Tuesday.

Meanwhile, there is a growing speculation in Egypt that the proceedings of the court would be manipulated or, at the very least, diluted to make way for Mubarak’s easy acquittal. Already five of the six police commanders of Mubarak’s era have been adjudged not guilty by another court in Cairo on Thursday. But should the trial be a cake walk for Mubarak, with the whole world watching? That remains to be seen.

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Iran builds indigenous nuclear fuel rods ignoring UN sanctions

Iranian scientists claimed a major feat on Sunday as reports came out that they have tested their first ever indigenous nuclear fuel rods successfully. If it is true, they have openly defied the United Nations’ sanction that restricts Iran from sourcing fuel rods from overseas companies. The sanction was imposed in order to restrict the country’s atomic work and to prevent production of atomic weapons.

A year ago, Iran had put forwarded its intention to build fuel rods and plates in order to make its nuclear program completely self-sufficient – a claim that generated scant regards from the United States as they doubted Iran’s capability in building nuclear fuel rods.

The United States and its European Union allies had long feared Iran of using its nuclear program to create atomic weapons. On its part, Iran has repeatedly denied such allegations and said that they use its nuclear program purely for civilian purposes i.e. generating electricity and treating cancer patients. In the mean time, Iran has carried on with their uranium enrichment program despite repeated sanctions from the United Nations and several economic penalties by the United States and the European Union.

It is reported on Sunday that Iran has bundled together its nuclear fuel rods in the core of a nuclear reactor, where its highly enriched uranium is stored for producing cancer-treating isotopes. But at this moment, the attention of the whole world is turned towards Iran as these nuclear fuel rods (with the help of its uranium-enriched pallets) can also be used to generate fuel for nuclear reactors. Till the intention of Iran is clear, the whole world would be on tenterhooks. For, if what it claims is true, that would mean Iran is now very much closer to build a nuclear bomb than it has ever been if it so desires.