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Thursday, January 5, 2012

Has the proposed oil ban by EU unsettled Iran?

In spite of the continuing war of words and defiant stand, has the proposed crude oil boycott by the European Union (EU) succeeded in softening Iran’s stand? Why else would Iran go on record on Thursday saying that the latest economic sanctions by the United States and the threat posed by the EU to stop nuclear program or face ban on oil export are equivalent to “an economic war”? Why would Iran waste time complaining when it could carry out its threat?

Again, “Iran threatening to take action against United States,” if an American aircraft carrier that left for Gulf of Oman via the Strait of Hormuz were to return to Persian Gulf – made news headline on Tuesday. Though there has been no report of United States making any changes to its military deployments at the Strait, no fresh tension has been reported in the Persian Gulf region till Thursday. What does it say?

Iran already has non-existent trade relationship with U.S. Its relationship with Britain is at an all time low. Currently 17 percent of Iran’s crude oil business comes from EU, which contributes a significant amount to Iran’s coffer. Under these circumstances, can Iran really afford fresh economic sanctions from EU? Is its economy in a position to continue with the nuclear program and suffer a new setback? Facts say otherwise, but only time would tell.

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