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Saturday, February 25, 2012

How different is Syria unrest from recent Arab uprisings?

As the death toll rises in Syria, diplomacy fails and call for help intensifies, for the first time countries of the world are at a loss regarding how best to handle Syria crisis. Unlike other countries Libya, Yemen, Egypt or Tunisia where the autocrat rulers were overthrown by the people of their country, toppling the current regime in Syria presents some unique problem.

While many believe that the Syria unrest would eventually make the Bashar-Al-Asaad government to step down from power, but not everyone is buying into the idea. Since the onset of revolution and President Assad unleashed crackdown on protestors, there is something unique going on in Syria. This is the proxy war that the larger powers in the world are reported to be engaged in with each other (due to geopolitical proximity or business stakes) in Syria. This means if the current regime is toppled, this may divide the world.

For many years, Syrian regimes have shared closed ties with Russia and Iran and allowed them to extend business interest into their country. On the other hand, they have also maintained fairly good relationship with the United States and a stable one with the neighboring Israel. But the gross human rights violations in Syria have put the United States against Russia and China who are against foreign military intervention.

Also, unlike rebels in Libya who were unified and used to have a strong hold in Bengazi, protestors in Libya are scattered and unorganized. This has made them an uncertain entity and therefore rules out support from outside, especially with artillery or machines.

Finally, as opposed to other Arab uprisings, especially in Egypt, the Bashar-Al-Asaad regime has the backing of its army. The Syrian army is powerful, modern and unified as compared to its Libyan counterparts. It is also being said that Asaad still enjoys some support in Syria. This makes an outright military intervention in Syria highly unlikely.

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