Is global recession imminent?

In the midst of market uncertainty coupled with sluggish economic growth, few had expected robust beginning to this New Year. But few had actually anticipated or openly admitted that attempts to bring global economy back on track could be numbered. That Eurozone has approached ‘a perilous new phase,’ acknowledged by none other than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday has certainly given it credibility. But hasn’t the threat of global recession been on the cards for some time now?

The bleak prediction by International Monetary Fund is based on two prevailing situations – high financing cost borne by euro zone nations and European banks facing severe credit crunch. Experts are of the opinion that each of the two conditions could have triggering effect on the other and may lead to further economic contractions.

Factors outside Eurozone could also have a large impact on global economy. Important among them are hike in global oil price due to sanctions on Iran, investor fear in the prevailing market scenario or possibility of spill-over effect of European debt crisis on other big economies like the United States as well as emerging economies like Japan.

On its quarterly updates, IMF has scaled down its previous global growth estimates of the year 2012 from 4 percent to 3.25 percent. In her latest speech, Managing Director of IMF, Christine Lagarde, has called on all the nations of the world to help bolster the bail-out fund and combat the threat of global recession. Currently, the fund is seeking $500 billion in addition to its present reserve.